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Can you win the lottery too many times |
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Can you win the lottery too many times Par No TricksLe [2011-09-14] à 12:13:37
Présentation : Last year I posted on The Fabled 25 Sigma Event, referring to a quote from David Viniar, then CFO of Goldman Sachs, who was attempting to describe the magnitude of the movements in the financial markets. Mr. Viniar was likely not understanding the implications of what he was saying since a 25 sigma event translates into a phenomenon occurring once every 10 135 years, a period of time that we have yet to see even a fraction of. Several researchers at the business school of the University College Dublin gave another interpretation of how unlikely this event was by stating that it equates to winning the UK lottery more than 20 times in a row. Winning the lottery 20 times does seem unlikely, and recently a woman who has won the Texas lottery just 4 times in the last 10 years or so. accumulating prize money just over 20 million USD, is being scrutinized for potential fraud, at least in the press. Nathaniel Rich ran an interesting 4-page story in the August issue of Harper s magazine, where he visits the small Texas town of Bishop to look at the lone store in town where three of the winning tickets were purchased. Rich spoke to enough mathematics professors beforehand to determine that the odds of an individual winning four times by pure luck are very low. The alternate scenarios are 1 an inside job potentially amongst the state lotteries and there suppliers 2 Cracking the parameters of the psuedo-random number generator for selecting the winners, and 3 Dumb luck, or increasing your odds of winning by buying many tickets. Clearly the local town people are going with scenario 3 or just ascribing it to pure luck outright, as there is a strong belief that everyone can be a winner. There is a lot of suspicion about the luck of Joan Ginther below and her winning streak. Googling on 4 time lottery winner produces pages of articles on Ginther s supposed luck. It seems then that no one would actually be able to win the UK lottery over 20 times as they would be arrested way before that many wins. image
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